A Momentum-Driven Start to 2026

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Nov-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A Dow Theory Buy Signal

It is said that there is nothing more bullish than a fresh high. The U.S. stock market achieved the rare feat of printing all-time highs in both the Dow Jones Industrials and Transportation Averages at the same time. In case you didn’t fully understand the implications, that’s a Dow Theory buy signal.

The full post can be found here.

Regime Change Adventures: Bush, Obama, and now Trump

Emerging market shocks follow a familiar pattern in quantitative investing. When the event occurs, quantitative factor responses in stock selection get thrown out the window. As the smoke clears, top-down strategists map out the direction and magnitude of the shock, and technical analysis factors like price momentum and reversals start to work. As the magnitude of the shock becomes known, company analysts revise their earnings estimates, and estimate revision and earnings surprise factors begin to work. Finally, as the investment environment stabilizes, conventional value and growth factors gain traction.
 

The same thing is happening when U.S. forces seized Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife in a weekend raid. The smoke is starting to clear, both metaphorically and literally, and invest0ors can see the direction of the shock.
 

The raid made some sense from a Trumpian geopolitical viewpoint. Bloomberg opinion columnist Javier Blas characterized the move as Trump building his own Oil Empire. The Donroe Doctrine countries in the Western hemisphere, the U.S., Canada, Venezuela and the rest of the Americas, control roughly 40% of global oil production and this allows the White House much greater control over oil prices and production to avoid energy shocks in the future.

It all sounds good in theory. But as the recent history during the 21st Century shows, this is the third time the U.S. has attempted regime change in oil-producing countries. Bush tried it in Iraq, Obama tried it in Libya and now Trump is trying it in Venezuela. None worked out according to their pre-war textbooks. Here’s what this latest geopolitical adventure means for investors.

The full post can be found here.

Did the Santa Rally Actually Fail?

Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 ended the seasonally positive Santa Claus rally window down -0.1% this year. According to Wall Street lore, this foreshadows a weak year for stock prices.

 

 

But did investors really miss Santa Claus this year? The Dow, the equal-weighted S&P 500, the NYSE Composite were all positive during the SCR window. Moreover, the S&P 500 made an all-time high the day after the window closed.

 

The full post can be found here.

What Santa Rally?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

 
 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Nov-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

If Santa Should Fail to Call…

The seasaonlly positive Santa Claus rally spans the last five days of the year and the first two days of the new year, and the window opened on December 25. So far, the S&P 500 is trading slightly below the closing price on  December 23. 

 
The Wall Street adage was first coined by Yale Hirch, “If Santa should fail  to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall”. Can the market rally on Monday, the last day of the Santa rally window, to rescue the bullish narrative?

While the historical record of failed Santa rallies is sobering, it’s difficult to believe that a few days at the turn of the year can have a significant price momentum effect for the rest of the year.

The full post can be found here.

Opportunities and Challenges of 2026

The accompanying chart from Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader shows the expected seasonal price pattern for the S&P 500. As with any seasonality analysis, direction is more important than the magnitude of the move. If history is any guide, expect a volatile year until October, followed by a rally into year-end.
I agree with the broad strokes of the seasonality analysis, and the pattern forms the base case of my S&P 500 market expectations for 2026.

But I still have questions for the market, and here are the opportunities and challenges for investors in the new year.

The full post can be found here.

How the Investing Game is Changing

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Nov-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A Lifetime Paradigm Shift

The year is almost over, and it's time to reflect on the tumultous time investors have experienced. In particular, Trump's trade war has caused an unexpected response and volatility. The markets were initially rattled by his "Liberation Day" announcements. Calm set in once it became apparent that major trading partners didn't retaliate, except for China and stocks turned risk-on and bond yields fell. 

 

The trade war was only the beginning. When I announced in March that I was shutting down, I didn't expect the financial markets were going to experience a paradigm shift of a lifetime. The White House release of the National Security Strategy (NSS) is just another manifestation of the paradigm shift that not only affects U.S. foreign policy, but basic assumptions about investing that I am not sure I know how to analyze anymore. 

 

The investing game is changing. It's time for me to leave.

The full post can be found here.

The Market Cycle Puzzle

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Nov-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 

Divergent Market Cycles 

Two weekI highlighted the relative breakouts of gold prices compared to the S&P 500 and the 60/40 portfolio and argued that the breakouts represented a transition of paper to hard asset leadership. However, the last time the gold/paper asset cycle turned, it coincided with a bottoming in other market leadership factors, namely value/growth, small cap/large cap and international/U.S. stocks. This time, the turn in factor leadership isn’t evident. 

 

What are the investment implications of the continuing divergence? Changes in market leadership often occur when a market transitions from bull to bear. Does this mean that the bull is still alive and how should investors position their portfolio allocation?

The full post can be found here.

Celebrate the Season of Saturnalia

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Nov-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 

The Bulls Throw a Party

Some historians have argued that early Christians adopted the Roman festival of Saturnalia, which was a festival to celebrate the winter solstice. It was a Bacchanalian period of drinking and excess. Today, that period coincides with the Christmas season.

It is in the spirit of Saturnalia that the bulls are throwing a party. The accompanying chart shows my risk appetite indicators, which are all tracking the strength of the S&P 500. In particular, the ratio of high beta to low volatility stocks (red line) recently exhibited a bullish divergence by rising to an all-time high.

The spirit of Bacchus lives this Christmas season and the markets are following the template for a rally into year-end.

The full post can be found here.

High Conviction Idea: My Most Reliable Timing Models

It’s that time of year again to offer my readers the highest conviction idea for the coming year. Last year, my bullish call on gold worked out extremely well (see 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold). Gold prices soared in all currencies and was one of the best-performing asset classes for the year.

This year, I am going to try something different. Instead of giving you a fish so you can eat for the day, I are going to teach you how to fish. I offer you my most reliable market timing models, each of which had shown success rates at, or nearly, 100% accuracy.

 

The full post can be found here.

A Less Hawkish Than Expected Rate Cut

Mid-week market update: Coming into the December FOMC decision, I was worried that the market might react negatively on the prospect of a hawkish rate cut. Ahead of the meeting, the Committee was highly divided and the potential for a divided decision was extremely high.

 

 

As it turns out, the level of hawkishness had already been priced in. There were only three dissents on the quarter-point rate cut decision. One was for a half-point cut (Miran), and two not to cut, which was a lower degree of hawkish dissent than expected. Moreover, the dots in the dot plot wasn't that different compared to September.

 

 

As well, the Fed announced a "QE but not really QE" operation of purchasing mainly T-Bills to facilitate an ample level of banking liquidity. We can argue whether really represents another round of quantitative easing, but the net effect is to inject liquidity into the financial system, which creates a tailwind for asset prices.

The full post can be found here.

A Healing Bull

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Nov-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

Head & Shoulders Still in Play

I highlighted a potential head and shoulders formation in the S&P 500 last week, and the pattern is still in play, with a warning to bears that H&S patterns are incomplete until the neckline breaks. The bulls are hoping that the index breaks out to a fresh high, which would invalidate the right shoulder, which should peak lower than the head.

I am inclined to agree with the bulls, as I am seeing signs of healing everywhere that are supportive of a further market advance.
 
The full post can be found here.

The Fed's Upcoming Productivity Bet

In 1995, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan made an unconventional bet that the U.S. was undergoing an era of faster productivity growth based on the adoption of technology. The decision enabled a significant shift in monetary policy that resulted in faster non-inflationary growth and increased prosperity. The adoption of easier monetary policy also fueled the Dot-Com Bubble.

The boom of the late 1990s earned Greenspan the moniker of the “maestro”. Some even speculated that the Fed may have abolished the ups and downs of the business cycle. However, Greenspan cautioned in an October 2002 speech that “long-term productivity optimism may currently seem a bit out of place”.

As Trump appoints a new Chair at the Fed and his allies tilt monetary policy to a more dovish direction, a new Trump-dominated Fed is likely to make a Greenspan-sized bet on AI productivity.
 

What does that mean for investors?

 

The full post can be found here. 

A Probable Failed Zweig Breadth Thrust

Mid-week market update: I noticed on the weekend that there was a lot of excitement over the possibility of a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal, probably because of the strong advance last week. The stock market consolidated this week, and while the ZBT window closes Friday, the degree of breadth strength to achieve a ZBT is becoming a mathematical impossibility.

 

The market remains at a crossroad between bullish and bearish outcomes, but the prognosis is becoming more promising for the bulls.

The full post can be found here.

At A Crossroad

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

 
  

   

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 18-Nov-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

Where to from Here?

I made a strong case last week that the market was oversold, washed-out and due for a bounce. It was therefore unsurprising that the S&P 500 staged a relief rally. The index recovered above its 50 dma and it’s now testing its rising trend line.

The key question is, where do we go from here?
 

The VVIX Index, which is the volatility of the VIX, fell below the key 100 level. Such instances have been short-term bullish in the past year (marked by vertical lines), though there are no guarantees that the rally will continue. On the other hand, the advance left the index extended and it may be forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulder formation. With the caveat that H&S patterns are incomplete until the neckline breaks, this is potentially a bearish development that could see stock prices weaken further.

The market is at a crossroad. Here are the bull and bear cases.

The full post can be found here.

What Investors Should Be Thankful For

As Americans recover from their extended Thanksgiving feasts, they were faced with the news of skidding consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index weakened to levels just above the lows seen during the post-COVID expansion.

 
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Confidence, which was released in early November, was even worse.

Before turning too bearish, investors should be thinking about the silver linings in this dark macroeconomic cloud of weak consumer confidence. The S&P 500 is near record highs this Thanksgiving and there are several things that equity investors should be thankful for.

The full post can be found here.

How to Trade the AI Panic

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

  

   

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 31-Jul-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A Letdown from the NVIDIA Party

The sense of disappointment was palpable. After the AI market leader reported its earnings, which beat expectations, CEO Jensen Huang characterized demand for its Blackwell chip as “off the charts”. The stock rallied but sellers appeared and pushed the broad market down.

A reader characterized Thursday’s market action as, “NVIDIA threw a party but nobody came”. Even before the NVIDIA report, sentiment had been deteriorating. While the Fear & Greed Index is an imperfect sentiment and market timing indicator, its readings have fallen to levels last seen during the “Liberation Day” panic in April. The key difference is fundamentals. The market weakness in April was attributable to fears that global trade might seize up and economic growth may crater. Today’s market weakness is driven mostly by psychology and not a significant change in fundamentals. Should you be stampeding to the exit because some investors are taking profits?
 

I believe sentiment has fallen to levels consistent with a tactical bottom.

 
 The full post can be found here.

Is it all over for growth stocks?

Is it all over for artificial intelligence-related plays? AI market leader NVIDIA reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results, and CEO Jensen Huang characterized demand for its Blackwell chip as “off the charts”. The stock staged a brief reflex rally but the price faded the next day to close in the red.
Even as the market adopted a risk-off tone, market leadership showed a clear growth to value rotation across the board on all market cap bands and internationally. Is it all over for growth stocks?

 
I analyzed the market through the lens of leadership rotation, and here’s what I found.

The full post can be found here.

Why I am hoping for an NVIDIA wipeout

Mid-week market update: I am publishing the mid-week market update early for two reason. I wanted to respond to the recent market turmoil. And I have a dental appointment just after the market close so this will be in your inbox early.

 

The markets have taken a sudden risk-off tone in the last few days. Growing concerns about valuation and skepticism about the AI revolution is feeding those worries. Bloomberg published an article with the catchy headline "Stocks Face Sell Signal as Cash Holdings Drop in BofA Survey":

Investors’ cash positions dropped below a critical threshold in a monthly Bank of America Corp. survey, triggering a so-called sell signal for equities at a time of rising doubts around lofty technology valuations.

The average cash held by global fund managers fell to 3.7%, something that has only occurred 20 times since 2002. Stocks declined and Treasuries outperformed in the following one-to-three months each time that happened, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.

The big sources of volatility this week is the NVIDIA earnings report Wednesday after the close, followed by the much delayed October Payroll Report Thursday morning.

As the market turmoil continues, I am hoping for a wipeout from the NVIDIA report, as that could represent the wipeout market low which represents a buying opportunity.

 

The full post can be found here.

Buy the Dip For the Year-end Rally

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

   

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 31-Jul-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

Consolidation and Test

The S&P 500 ended an upper Bollinger Band ride weakened to the 50 dma support level. Past pullbacks in the most recent bull trend have ended when the 5-day RSI became oversold. As expected, the market rebounded and it has begun to consolidate sideways. If history is any guide, investors should see an upside breakout through the consolidation range in the next few days. I would look for the VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, to decline below 100 as an bullish all-clear signal.

 
Stock prices are on track for a rally into year-end.

The full post can be found here.

Can the Bulls Survive a "Let Them Eat Cake" Economy?

There has been increasing concern about the K-shaped economy. Fed Chair Powell specifically addressed this issue at the last post-FOMC press conference:

To start with the layoffs, you're right, you see a significant number of companies either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring, or actually doing layoffs, and much of the time they're talking about AI and what it can do. So, we're watching that very carefully…On the K-shaped economy thing, I would say the same thing, or similar thing. We are —- if you listen to the earnings calls or the reports of big, public, consumer-facing companies, many, many of them are saying that there’s a bifurcated economy there and that consumers at the lower end are struggling and buying less and shifting to lower cost products, but that at the top, people are spending at the higher income and wealth, and they’re — so much, much anecdotal data on that.

Investors are seeing a bifurcation in consumer sentiment. Sentiment of households with incomes over $100,000 are at or near a cycle high, while sentiment for households making below $100,000 are plunging in 2025.

This is setting up to be a “let them eat cake” economy. While the stock market isn’t the economy, can the bull market survive such a bifurcation if most U.S. consumers are struggling?
 

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